Over the past few months, American foreign policy has been turning away from assisting Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion. As the full-scale conflict reached its third year, President Donald Trump showed eagerness to end the fighting by forcing Ukraine to cede occupied territory. The U.S. President and his VP Vance berated Ukraine’s President Zelensky in a televised meeting to the embarrassment of many. Initially freezing aid to Ukraine, the United States has resumed it on the condition that the besieged country agrees to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. Russia refused a total ceasefire, instead bargaining down to a ceasefire on energy infrastructure. It seems that Putin is setting the pace much more than Trump or Zelensky is in these peace talks.
While the Republican-led U.S. government has been moving toward a peace deal without Kyiv, it strikes me that they are able to frame it as a peace process. Many politicians before, during and after the election have tried to paint themselves as isolationists—even if they still support funding to Taiwan and Israel—who are trying to prevent wider warfare. In public discourse, many feel that continued support for Ukraine will lead to escalation into broader conflict. But a peace that gives concessions to Russia at Ukraine’s expense will not reduce the risk of war in the future. In fact, there is evidence that it would empower Russia’s military expansionism.
First, Putin has shown interest in invading or influencing other countries besides Ukraine. Before Ukraine, he invaded Georgia in 2008 under the guise of securing the interests of the breakaway states Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While the fighting itself lasted only five days, Russian troops remained in the breakaway regions. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the troops move the fences—and therefore the borders—of the breakaway states incrementally so that Georgia slowly loses land. Meanwhile, the current government, which is pro-Russian, continues to rig elections so they win against pro-EU parties. Essentially, the Russian state has the means and motivation to launch direct and indirect takeovers in other post-Soviet countries.
Putin has run an extensive propaganda campaign to ensure the population supports his war. The Russian media has cultivated nationalism in his country in many different ways. According to Reuters, he has collaborated with the Orthodox Church to cast the invasion and the government as divine. He has promoted Russia as a bastion of traditional masculinity. The viral photo of shirtless Putin was a deliberate PR stunt for this. Finally, he demonizes the West as a place where conservative family norms are attacked.
Homophobia plays an outsized role in Russia’s wartime propaganda. The Russian propaganda apparatus has referred to EU countries as “Gayrope” and claim gay marriage is forced on people. This rhetoric may sound like middle school bullying, but the claims are often accepted as fact. Putin is famous for justifying his invasion by claiming that the Ukrainian government was propped up by neo-Nazis. However, sociologist Cinzia Solari points out that Russian media sources also used images of Ukrainian drag queens to turn people against the country. I’ve seen the hatred of outsiders used to bolster nationalism. It works precisely because it is outrageous. If a person has it in their head that their hatred is justified, they often take joy in expressing it in extremes. Other citizens in Russia see the contradictions in this propaganda, which is when the government uses its final tool: the police. Amnesty International states that in 2022 alone, 21,000 anti-war and anti-Putin activists, up to and including jail. By watering seeds of nationalist bigotry and weeding out dissent, Putin has cultivated a population that is either apathetic or supportive toward the invasion.
Finally, surrender to Russia will invite larger invasions in the future. This claim is not just speculation. In 2014, Russia used unmarked troops to annex the Crimea region, prompting American and European leaders to impose economic sanctions but give no military aid. According to The Hill, Russia was undeterred. It went on to back rebel groups in the Eastern Donbas region and then launched its full scale military invasion in 2022. Appeasement has only led to Putin taking greater action against his neighbors.
Valerie Malykhina ’25 lived in Donetsk before it was seized by Russian-backed separatists. “The troops were concealed as a separatist movement when in reality it was an invasion—a tactic Russia uses time after time.” Russia has concealed military actions by exploiting unofficial loopholes and using different labels. I would argue that this worked. The Russian and Russian-allied militaries have been on Ukrainian soil since 2014, and yet the invasion has only been recognized by the mainstream media during the dramatic full-scale invasion.
While Malykhina has not lived in the region since 2019, people, including her family members, face hardships under the occupation. “They have water once every three days, they get propaganda on their television 24/7. We don’t talk about anything but the weather and how my grandma’s cat is doing, because any other topic could lead to heated discussion, because that’s all the information they get. There’s no qualified doctors. I met a woman whose grandparents lived in an occupied community and they got covid. She went to take care of them, and she couldn’t find basic medication. This was 2021, before the full-scale invasion.”
Valerie traveled back to unoccupied Ukraine this summer and worked in Lviv at a trauma rehabilitation facility. While Lviv itself is far from the front line, ambulances carrying wounded soldiers to overwhelmed hospitals drive the streets every day, and the residents live through air raids and power outages. “I think a general understanding of what peace would look like is a strong Ukraine, particularly support from our allies, not just sanctions, but support investigating Russian war crimes, support with defense supplies. For Ukraine to have the capacity to protect itself and thrive economically, which requires people to go back to their daily lives.” Valerie cares particularly about the medical system and mental health system, which is overburdened and undersupplied. She urges Vassar students to donate funds for medical supplies, stay up to date on the news, and be vigilant about Russian influence and disinformation in our discourse.
My takeaway from talking to Valerie is that peace is badly needed. But the conditions of Russian aggression and occupation do not give Ukraine the safety it needs for lasting peace. Ceding land and protection from Ukraine will leave the country vulnerable, while Russia will retain its appetite for conquest.