Spring is in the air, and the 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) season is underway. With just a few of the 162 games in the books, it is way too early to accurately predict what will happen. But, there are some exciting things to watch out for this year, no matter how the games end up going.
The biggest headline of the offseason and spring training is the new rule changes implemented by MLB. These changes were made in an attempt to speed up the pace of the games and increase the action. With ratings declining in recent decades according to Statista, MLB is trying to adapt. Many believe that the decline in ratings can be attributed to the lack of balls put in play. When a batter puts a ball in play, there is immediate action. So many possibilities exist: It could be a clean single, an extra base hit that sees the batter charging around the bases, an out, an error by a fielder and even more possible outcomes. In recent years, the MLB has seen strikeouts go way up, as well as home runs. For example, before 2010, there had never been an MLB season where the league averaged 7.0 strikeouts per game or higher. Since 2016, there has not been a season where the league averaged below 8.0 strikeouts per game. This number reached as high as 8.81 in 2019, according to Baseball Reference. In terms of home runs, six out of the top seven highest home run rates came from the 2016 season or later, with data dating all the way back to 1871, Baseball Reference reported.
So how does MLB plan to fix this? They have implemented a number of changes that they hope will both increase action and shorten games. After a month of spring training, the results are quite encouraging. The two biggest rule changes are the elimination of the shift and the implementation of a pitch clock. The defensive shift has been eliminated because MLB believes it will raise batting averages. The new rule states that when a pitch is thrown, all four infielders must be on the infield dirt or infield grass, and there must be two fielders on either side of second base, according to ESPN. The biggest change though is the pitch clock. With the bases empty, a pitcher will have 15 seconds to throw a pitch, and 20 seconds when there is a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter’s box with eight seconds remaining on the clock. If the pitcher takes longer than the pitch clock allows for, he will be penalized by adding a ball to the count. If the hitter violates the clock, he will be penalized by adding a strike to the count, according to ESPN. There is evidence from the minor leagues (where these rules were implemented last year) that these rules will have a big impact, so executives in MLB are excited about them.
Aside from the rule changes, there are lots of exciting storylines to follow heading into the season. Here are some of the big ones.
Can the Mets deliver?
The Mets made some big splashes in free agency this offseason by signing or extending players such as Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. Although their crosstown rivals, the Yankees, are the team that is historically known for “buying” championships by grossly outspending all the other teams, this season the Mets have taken that role. According to Spotrac, the Mets have a 2023 payroll of $336 million. That is over $67 million more than the team with the second highest payroll, the aforementioned Yankees, and well over twice the league average payroll. It is also over $100 million greater than the MLB Competitive Balance Threshold, a kind of “soft cap” that is meant to be followed by teams in order to keep the league competitive (but in reality, the only penalty for crossing this threshold is a tax, which doesn’t stop the richest teams anyway). This lack of equality among team payrolls has long been criticized by fans and undoubtedly puts the teams with less rich owners or smaller markets at a huge competitive disadvantage. So with these numbers in mind, there is no doubt that anything short of a World Series title would be straight up embarrassing for the Mets. It would be like if the rich kid who has had everything handed to him on a silver platter his whole life still failed to be successful. But the Mets have a rich history of ineptitude. Not only have they not won a World Series since 1986, but they had incredibly high expectations the last few seasons and have not made it past the first round of the playoffs since 2015. In fact, they failed to make the playoffs in all but two years during that timespan. They had a huge division lead at the halfway point of last season and choked it away to the Braves in the last game of the season, forcing themselves to be a wildcard where they then immediately got bounced out of the first round by the San Diego Padres. They have already lost closer Diaz for the season to a knee injury, so they are well on their way to blowing it yet again.
How will Aaron Judge follow his historic season?
Last season, Judge not only won the American League (AL) MVP award, but he hit 62 home runs, a new AL single-season record. He was rewarded with a huge new contract from the Yankees worth $360 million over nine years, per The Athletic. So the expectations are clearly sky high. Everyone is wondering how he can follow up his historic season. It seems unreasonable to expect him to hit 62 home runs again, but how close will he get? Will he justify the huge new contract, or will the Yankees quickly have buyer’s remorse?
Can Shohei Ohtani keep it up?
Judge may have been the AL MVP last season, but Ohtani has been the best all-around player in baseball over the last two years. After having injury problems his first couple seasons, Ohtani was able to stay healthy in 2021 and 2022, and he did things that no one has even dreamed of doing since Babe Ruth. He put up all-star worthy numbers as both a hitter and a pitcher. Over the last two seasons, Ohtani has hit 80 home runs, driven in 195 runs, stolen 37 bases and has an on base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .917. Simultaneously, he went 24-11 as a pitcher with a 2.70 earned run average (ERA) over 296.1 innings that included 375 strikeouts according to Baseball Reference. So can he keep it up yet again? And, even more intriguing, where will Ohtani end up? With free agency impending, there are plenty of rumors that Ohtani wants out of Los Angeles, where he has spent the last five seasons on an underperforming team that has not made the playoffs in his tenure.
Can the Padres win it all?
Similar to the Mets, the Padres had a big offseason. They extended star pitcher Yu Darvish on a six-year deal, and they acquired shortstop Xander Bogaerts on an 11-year deal in free agency. Not only that, but they made it all the way to the NLCS last year without Fernando Tatis Jr., who will return from suspension this year. They also acquired Juan Soto, arguably the best hitter in baseball, at the trade deadline last year in a blockbuster trade with the Washington Nationals. The Padres are overflowing with all star talent, and it is not an understatement to call them a super team. Anything short of a World Series title should be considered a huge failure for them this season.