I am not a political strategist or even a political science major. I am simply a citizen who has made observations. It is up to the readers to decide what to make of them.
The country is entering 2026 in a state of visible instability. Everything is more expensive. Unemployment is well above the norm. A mission to supposedly rid Minneapolis of violent illegal immigrants has resulted in rights being violated and the killings of two American citizens. The midterm elections are also coming up later this year. To say that 2026 has been very similar to 2024 would be met with much skepticism. However, I have noticed key patterns that lead me to this conclusion: Republicans will lose decisively in 2026 for many of the same reasons Democrats lost in 2024. To be fair, the party with control of the White House usually loses control of Congress during the midterms. However, the degree and margins to which they lose control can vary. I predict Republicans will lose control of Congress—certainly the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate as well.
The first pattern is gaslighting. As 2024 demonstrated, gaslighting may be more politically damaging than outright lying. Here is a thought experiment to help illustrate this. Chuck is a 25-year-old working-class, blue-collar worker in New Mexico. Chuck is busy with his job and family, so he is not able to read a lot about politics. He is only really able to watch important addresses, speeches and debates or something that goes so viral he cannot ignore it. Chuck is not registered with a political party and 2024 was the first presidential election he was eligible to vote in. Chuck is perceptive enough to recognize obvious contradictions and he knows that President Donald Trump lies a lot. However, he is too busy to fact-check, and some of Trump’s claims and promises sound plausible enough that Chuck believes them. Chuck saw a couple of former President Joe Biden’s notable speeches in 2024 and was surprised by how many high level Democrats said that he was not mentally declining and that people like Chuck were ageist. Then the first presidential debate happened, and Chuck was again told by Democrats that he needed to ignore his eyes and his ears. Chuck trusted his own observations, yet party leaders asked him to doubt them. Fast forward to 2026, and Chuck is outraged, this time by the right. Like most people, he saw the shooting of Alex Pretti and he was furious. Not just at the shooting, but by the efforts of high-ranking Republicans like Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to gaslight him into believing that Pretti was a domestic terrorist who provoked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. The video of the shooting was so widespread and so clear that Chuck was shocked he was being told to ignore what was so obvious and well laid out. To Chuck, the facts appeared just as clear as Biden’s decline had seemed two years earlier. Also equally apparent to him was that political officials were attempting to gaslight him.
The second pattern was an abandonment of key principles. The circumstances that led to former Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee were unique and by no means her fault. However, they illustrate how much moral credibility the Democrats forfeited due to Biden’s delayed withdrawal. By waiting until July to withdraw from the race, Biden left Democrats without time for a competitive primary, and Harris became the nominee by default. She spent the next three-and-a-half months labeling Trump as a threat to democracy—rightfully so—while simultaneously not having been chosen by the people in a primary. However uncomfortable it may be, Trump emerged from a competitive primary process, while Harris did not. Therefore, the painful truth is that Donald Trump was elected more democratically than Kamala Harris would have been.
Fast forward to today. In defending the shooting of Pretti, some Republicans and Trump officials, including FBI Director Kash Patel, have emphasized that he was armed, using rhetoricsuch as, “You can’t bring a gun to a protest.” First of all, Pretti was disarmed before he was shot 10 times. Second of all, such rhetoric seems to blatantly go against the Second Amendment, which is a cornerstone of conservative political positions. In doing so, members of the administration appear willing to sideline not only the Second Amendment, but also core First and Fourth Amendment protections such as freedom of assembly and the protection against unlawful searches and seizures. These are fundamental principles—like the primary vote—that voters are being asked to ignore. Likely, most voters will not.
The final pattern is simple: Voters support the party they believe will address their problems. But before voters trust a leader to solve their problems, they must believe that leader is honest about what those problems are. Gaslighting erodes trust. Abandoning principles erodes credibility. And refusing to acknowledge economic anxiety, instability or government overreach erodes confidence. In 2024, Democrats paid the price for that erosion. In 2026, Republicans are on track to do the same.