Well, another mediocre All-Star break has passed. The most notable events, if, like me, you did not care to watch, were the hilariously underwhelming dunk contest and the “KD Files” unfolding on X formerly Twitter, where All-Star Kevin Durant might have been exposed for talking smack about his teammates on a burner account. Regardless, we are nearing the stage of the season where we can safely look both forward and backward to ascertain what is going on with each team and who might win it all this June.
Most disappointing team: This is a tough one. You could give it to the New Orleans Pelicans for finally having a seemingly competent roster but still being terrible, all without their pick for next year due to a disastrous trade with the Atlantic Hawks in last years draft. Or the Houston Rockets for underperforming somewhat while going all-in on a Kevin Durant trade last off season. Or even the New York Knicks for forgetting how to play defense, while the Eastern Division is wide open. For me, though, the clear favorite here is the Orlando Magic. The swing-and-a-miss on the Desmond Bane trade has become a miscalculation, as his play has stagnated and has not improved the team too much, while injuries plague much of the roster still, especially Jalen Suggs. The real crux of this team is former No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero, who has become a pariah in how middling his play has gotten and how limited his bag is as a player, though he has been improving slightly as the season rolls on. This team can hover around mediocrity for now and for some time, but it will eventually crack under light pressure.
Most surprising team: Detroit basketball is back! The Pistons have exploded onto the scene as the top of an admittedly weak Eastern Conference, but they have momentum and an MVP candidate in Cade Cunningham. The biggest improvements this season have been a jump in productivity from center Jalen Duren and added defensive leaps from Ausar Thompson. This is a gritty and unselfish team, but they are winning games and, if you view basketball like their backup center, Isiah Stewart, getting into a lot of good fights. The Boston Celtics are a clear second for this due to a massive overperformance, but that is still not as shocking considering the skills we have seen from Derrick White and Jaylen Brown in their careers already. Third is the Charlotte Hornets, for finally clicking together as a unit with the addition of Rookie of the Year contender Kon Knueppel.
MVP Favorite: This still remains a two-horse race between the horse-loving Nikola Jokic and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). Fundamentally, both face similar issues down the stretch of having to fight against the 65-game restrictions, as injuries have sidelined Jokic and SGA for periods of the season. What I see, and what I hope the voters see, is that SGA has one of the best supporting casts in NBA history around him, whilst Jokic, though playing with a cast of good-to-great role players, has had to watch nearly his entire starting lineup, including himself, take time off for injuries. Due to this, and for his ability to once again make Denver a true competitor, I think it should be Jokic, but it could go to either and voters will likely side with the more defensively-skilled SGA or, as momentum changes, possibly the San Antonio Spurs’ alien big man Victor Wembanyama.
Eastern Conference Champion: There are many good picks for this prediction. Dark horses like an Embiid-healthy Philadelphia 76ers or a rising Toronto Raptors team lurks whilst the Knicks underperform and the Cleveland Cavaliers continue their new James Harden era. But the dark horse who has risen and has all the momentum in my eyes is clear: The Boston Celtics. Behind superb coaching from Joe Mazzula alongside huge leaps from nearly every role player, the Celtics are deep, defensively minded and have passion in their play. It also helps that Jaylen Brown, after years of hate towards his handle and salary, has blossomed into a fringe MVP candidate, and he is joined by a rusty yet still highly effective Jayson Tatum after an anomalous return from his Achilles tear. In what was supposed to be a gap year, the Celtics have regained the gritty play and intensity in players such as Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez that were wavering by the end of the Porzingis-Holiday era. And with the East wide open, it might be time for TD Garden to host the finals again, only two seasons after Boston brought home the chip.
Western Conference Champion: Though not reaching the heights that the beginning of the season projected, the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) are just too good. Even after minor slumps, they bounced right back and are, like last season, succeeding even with injuries. The biggest boon to this team right now was at the trade deadline, where wizard general manager Sam Presti did it again and acquired young star guard Jared McCain from the Philadelphia 76ers for just a few picks. McCain has already brought scoring off the bench on an already stacked roster, and this has been complimented by breakouts across the season from Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams alongside continued bench support from Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe. This is not even factoring in the absolutely evil, fully healthy starting lineup of a still-developing Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren alongside SGA, defensive menace Lugentz Dort and seasoned big-man Isaiah Hartenstein. Could I see a big injury or two in the playoffs halting OKC from winning it all again? Sure. This is no invulnerable team as the seven-game series last season against the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers displayed, but it would take a lot to keep them from trouncing a middling Rockets team, an injury-riddled Nuggets team, or even a deep Minnesota Timberwolves roster, though Anthony Edwards could always rise to the moment. Their biggest obstacle is the 2nd seeded San Antonio Spurs, who have enough defensive intangibles and scoring to pull off the upset, but OKC has the experience, and I see them pulling through unless outside factors come in.
NBA Championship: If my predictions stand and we get the Celtics versus the Thunder, I would take the Thunder in six, though a seven game series is not out of the question. Tatum, Brown and White are a great cast, with great weapons around them, but they will have to match the OKC defensive intensity that has made their modern dominance so strong. The Celtics will claw their way to a few wins, but OKC is just too deep, too defensively thorough and knows how to eke out a win in Adam Silver’s NBA. They are clear favorites for a reason, and a second ring and possible second finals MVP would cement SGA as the best guard and possible face of the NBA.
Other predictions I have:
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Most Improved Player: Ryan Rollins
Sixth Man of the Year: Naz ReidRookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg OR Kon Knuepple, will depend on Hornets continued success