Every year in the NBA, there are about eight teams that think they have what it takes to win it all. This level of delusion is unprecedented outside of sports: there is no other industry where such unearned confidence is commonplace. But when every team is all in and talking a big game, it is hard to separate the wheat from the Chicago Bulls. Who are the contenders, and who are the pretenders? This week, we take a look at eight high-tier NBA playoff teams and sort them based on one overriding criteria: how likely we think it is that they go all the way. We are not looking for Conference Champions or most improved teams, and we are certainly not looking for in-season tournament winners (though our money is obviously on the Lakers to repeat). We are looking for teams who we see plausibly holding the O’Brien trophy in June. It is the NBA: The only thing that matters is the chip.
Contenders
Boston Celtics
We wish we were not writing this. We wish that, when we poured over the advanced stats, we found some chink in the Celtics’ armor that would disqualify them from holding the trophy again. But as much as we love to hate the Celtics, we must admit: This crew seems likely to repeat a win and is too good to be labeled as anything but a contender. The Celtics’ offense is sharp and well-varied—few teams have the defensive pieces to stop both a strong three-point attack and a Kristaps Porzingas-led post game. Defensively, they were also among the best in the NBA, trailing only the Minnesota Timberwolves in defensive rating. Through three games of the 2024-2025 season, the offensive dominance has continued (though interestingly, without Porzingis, the Celtics have fallen to 13th-best in defensive rating—something to watch as the season continues). The Celtics, despite second-apron troubles, have the repeat entirely within their grasp. The only consolation to every other fan in the East is that if they mess it up, we will never let them hear the end of it.
Dallas Mavericks
Beginning this list with the two championship finalists is a remarkably unimaginative take, but the Dallas Mavericks, despite their relatively low seed in the 2023-2024 NBA playoffs, have proven that they can pull it together for a convincing playoff run. Dallas has an experienced court general in Kyrie Irving, and they have added even more veteran star power with the signing of Klay Thompson, who hopes to learn from Irving and have his own career renaissance. A solid bench brings up the rear for the Mavericks, and pieces like Derek Lively and Maxi Kleber keep the Mavs competitive deep into regular season games. But the true star of the show, and the ultimate determiner of the Mavericks’ postseason success, is Luka Doncic. Doncic’s MVP-caliber play is what elevates the Mavericks to non-fraud status: without him, we doubt the Mavericks would even contend for the play-in. As such, the Mavs’ status as a contender is the most precarious among the four we’re listing here. What it comes down to is simple: As Luka goes, so goes Dallas.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The elephant in Target Stadium is Minnesota’s blockbuster trade with the New York Knicks, which sent T-Wolves standby Karl Anthony-Towns (KAT) to the New York Knicks for a package headlined by Donte Divencenzo and Julius Randle. It is too early to truly judge this trade on its one merits, but despite the departure of a star player on Minnesota’s end, we are convinced that the Wolves won this one by adding two strong options for the price of one. Though Randle is not as dominant of a scorer as KAT, he stretches the floor and gets back on defense just as well, and his presence might even allow Anthony Edwards to shine even brighter than he did with KAT on the floor. And though Divencenzo likely won’t crack the starting lineup, he is a spark plug off the bench and gives Minnesota explosive scoring power well into their reserves. Together, their addition makes the Timberwolves a more balanced team who are capable of elevating themselves on both sides of the ball and credibly facing off with any team in the league. Minnesota has good vibes right now: They have young stars and capable veterans, a front office that is all in and a head coach (Chris Finch) who elevates his players. If there is a time to get it done, it is now.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City (OKC) is another one of those good vibes teams that you just know is going to run their conference for years to come. They are stocked with a young core that includes MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and two-way center Chet Holmgren, not to mention defensive star Luguentz Dort and scoring threat Jalen Williams. The main knock on OKC is that they are too young, a quality definitely apparent in their Western Conference semifinals collapse last year. Hopefully, veteran Alex Caruso can add some composure to the OKC crew. But the remarkable thing about this version of the Thunder is that they are still in great position, draft and cap-wise, to build an even more monstrous contender in the years to come. At any time, they can cash in some of that saved-up capital to make an already dominant 2024-2025 squad even better. Until further notice, the Thunder is the team to beat in the West.
Pretenders
New York Knicks
Rising from decades at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, the New York Knicks reinvigorated their franchise with a solid playoff push despite injuries to several key players late last year. Led by guard Jalen Brunson with many of his former college teammates who helped him win the NCAA Championship at Villanova in the 2017-2018 season, the “Nova Knicks” appeared to be a team with a bright future. Their core of young developing stars had some of the best locker room culture in the league, but rather than attempting to run it back with a hopefully healthier team, Team President Leon Rose preferred to renovate. Trading away former All-NBA forward Julius Randle, Sixth Man of the Year contender Donte DiVincenzo and a few draft picks this offseason to pick up the aforementioned Karl-Anthony Towns and another Villanova man in Mikal Bridges, the Knicks see themselves as a win-now team. The issue is, they are not one. Towns and Bridges are both great pickups, but neither player is quite as good as those they gave up as they need them to be. They sacrificed defense and their future for a more dynamic offense. But with other Center Mitchell Robinson continuously battling injuries, the team is too small and lacking in paint defense to be able to handle any teams with major frontcourt scorers, leaving them to more than likely finish early in the playoffs once more.
Milwaukee Bucks
When Damian Lilliard signed with the Bucks last offseason, the mood in Cream City was electric: Though local heroes like Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis Jr. had left Milwaukee, the Dame trade was an indication that the Bucks were not willing to let their championship window close without a fight. One season later, however, the Bucks are starting to show cracks that Dame Time cannot fix. Lilliard’s on-ball power is undeniable; However, his weakness on defense, as well as his tendency to hog the ball, have led to an overall diminishment of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s effectiveness and an over reliance on deep threes that come in streaky bursts. The Bucks cap and trade struggles have also manifested themselves in a thin bench; when Antetokounmpo and Dame are not on the court, you know Milwaukee is being outscored. That is not to say that Milwaukee is not a solid playoff squad—any team anchored by Antetokounmpo is going to have a shot in any seven-game playoff series. But those odds diminish significantly when you have a shallow bench and when your star point guard is 34-years-old and might not make it through several playoff series against tough, physical opponents. Milwaukee certainly has a place in the East, but we do not see them going all the way this year.
Philadelphia 76ers
Looking at the Philadelphia 76ers, the story is actually quite simple. The best ability is availability, and being a team led by Center Joel Embiid, they will play almost half of their games this season without a completely healthy starting lineup. They squeaked into the playoffs last season after Embiid missed 43 out of 82 games—he plays an average of just 54 per season—and it is quite unlikely that things will go any differently this year. Point guard Tyrese Maxey is coming off an excellent season in which he won the Most Improved Player award, and the team added aging superstar Paul George this offseason. However, they did little to solve their lingering issues. George has also found himself spending many games off the floor in recent years, and the odds that he finds legitimate synergy with the rest of the team in addition to him and Embiid being healthy come playoff time are insurmountably low. If there was a one pill fix for all injuries, this team would be in a great place, but unfortunately for Philly sports fans, that is not the case.
Denver Nuggets
Denver fans will tell you that the Nuggets’ fall from grace in the Western Conference Semifinals was an aberration, an unlucky end for a team that was otherwise on track to repeat. We offer another explanation. Nikola Jokić is one of the best basketball players in the world, but no amount of triple doubles will change the fact that Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon are starters for this team. The outlook only gets gloomier when you peek under the hood at the second team and see stinkers all around like Dario Šarić and Peyton Watson, who combined for one point, two rebounds, one steal and three fouls in 21 minutes against the Raptors. You could probably find better contributors at any intramural game at the AFC, so we are expecting to see some scouts there this spring.