Halfway through the NFL season, it is hard to be wrong if you are in sports media. The battle lines are drawn, playoff spots are already clinched and breakout stars/unmitigated failures are pretty much set in stone. But, bravely, I am going to try and be wrong anyway. Here are five NFL takes you can taunt me with when the season ends.
1. The Chiefs are not what they seem. NFL analysts are quick to point out that the Chiefs are winning a lot of close games, as if this is new or unknown information. But, strangely, these same analysts also seem to forget their own reporting when they absolutely glaze the Chiefs at every conceivable media opportunity. Make no mistake: The Chiefs are a good team. But you should never, and I mean never, be one blocked field goal away from losing to Bo Nix and Sean Payton. The Chiefs are absolutely mortal, and we will see that bear out in the second half of the season with tough games against the Bills, Texans and Steelers. Hell, throw the Chargers in there, with their defensive renaissance the last few weeks. Clearly, the Chiefs have sold their soul to get where they are, but even the devil can only do so much for a team that, since week one, has been punching above their weight with an under-producing offense and an elite defense that can only do so much. Expect the Chiefs to be at least a three or four loss team heading into the playoffs. They are good, but they are not perfect.
2. The Bengals are bad. Joe Burrow remembered how to play football this season, after a stumbling start and a disappointing 2023 campaign. But that is not enough to save a team that is constantly coming up short. The Bengals defense is plain bad, posting a 31st-ranked red zone defense, a 26th-ranked scoring defense and middling to bad in every single other statistic. On the other side of the ball, a poor offensive line limits the play of an otherwise dominant offense. It is a shame that it went this way, especially because Ja’Marr Chase is about to take up even more cap space that is going to further cripple the Bengals’ front office. But, as it stands now, the Bengals only have a 41 percent chance of making the playoffs. With two tough games against division rivals Steelers, it is likely that even one additional loss outside those divisional games will sink playoff plans in Cincinnati. And remember: This is a team that lost to the Patriots. How good can they really be?
3. Something is cooking in Pittsburgh. When Justin Fields was benched for quarterback Russell Wilson in week six, there were naturally questions about fixing what is not broken, especially when the Steelers had posted a 4-2 record to that point. But, three weeks later, it is clear why Mike Tomlin is well compensated: The Steelers have since thoroughly boomed their opponents, including a venerable Commanders team who is almost certain to make a playoff run. Russell Wilson has added something to the Pittsburgh offense that has not been present since the Big Ben days: an element of healthy risk-taking. To Pittsburgh fans, the willingness to take deep shots and make plays through the air has to be relieving after two years of Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh is an unorthodox team, and their defense is certainly still better than their offense. But the Steelers are a team to look out for as we head into the postseason.
4. Offensive Lines are Important after all. Would you buy a Bugatti and then park it unlocked in the THs? Hell no—a bear is gonna break into it! And yet, despite decades of coaching wisdom to the contrary, teams are doing just that—or at least the NFL equivalent. Eager to try out their franchise guys, head coaches are putting young stars into the line of fire—forgetting, apparently, why their teams were drafting high in the first place. Caleb Williams was sacked nine times on Sunday. Nine times! How is a signal-caller supposed to learn and grow in conditions like these? If you are an NFL team, and you have a promising guy waiting in the wings, please, I beg you: let Tyson Bageant take the hit instead.
5. Don’t worry too much about the Texans. Yes, the Texans are 6-4 right now, and they did lose to the Jets, which should not happen on the worst of days. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has taken a step back, even accounting for Houston’s wide receiver woes. But those calling the Texans pretenders might soon be shouting that the sky is falling. The Texans have had tough opponents thus far, and the rest of their season—barring games against the Chiefs and Ravens—seems pretty easy. We could see the Texans shake out with a perfectly respectable 12-5 record and a punched ticket to a home-hosted wildcard game. With wide receiver Nico Collins back, the Texans are perfectly valid contenders—as long as they improve down the stretch, especially under center.