Four years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers faced off in Super Bowl LIV in a showdown that saw the Chiefs mount a comeback down 10 points halfway through the fourth quarter with 21 unanswered points. The Chiefs won by a score of 31-20. This year, the two squads will face off once again, but will this outcome be any different? The Chiefs entered the playoffs as a dark horse to try for a Super Bowl. But, as they head into their fourth title game appearance in the last five seasons, we might be witnessing the construction of a dynasty. Meanwhile, the 49ers are back for blood. After having the Vince Lombardi trophy ripped from their grip in 2020, the team is steadfast in their mission to win their first championship in 30 years. But before we break down this upcoming matchup, let us look back at how these teams fared last weekend in their conference championship games.
Led by another phenomenal performance from quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs continued to assert their dominance. The Chiefs scored 17 points in the first half and did not score at all in the second half. Nevertheless, their defense stayed strong and held the Ravens to a mere field goal after their first half touchdown. Mahomes was efficient, totalling 241 passing yards with almost half coming from Travis Kelce, who had 11 receptions, 116 yards and a touchdown. But, it was Kansas City’s defense that won the game on Sunday night. The Baltimore Ravens were held to just five first downs in the first half, less than half of the 10.6 they averaged per half during the regular season. The Ravens posted a 75-yard drive at the onset of the game, but totaled just 33 more yards in the first half—this lackluster performance was primarily due to Baltimore’s inability to get the run game going, totalling 81 total rushing yards.
In San Francisco, the Detroit Lions jumped out to a two-touchdown lead early on due to sloppy play from the 49ers that included a missed field goal from rookie kicker Jake Moody. Early in the second quarter, however, San Francisco got rolling as running back Christian McCaffery posted his 24th touchdown this season for the Niners. The 49ers could not be stopped once they got going. San Francisco is less explosive than the Chiefs, but the former summoned a critical move when they came back from down 17 points. This win was not without a couple of lucky moments. A lackluster coaching job from Lions head coach Dan Campbell led to two late game fourth down tries when Detroit could have elected to kick a three-point field goal. Neither fourth down try was successful, and the Lions lost by three.
When the Chiefs and the 49ers meet in Las Vegas, we can expect to see a couple of things, but most importantly, a game that should come down to the final whistle. ESPN’s Pro Football Index (PFI) predicted San Fransisco to win 59 percent of the time by an average of 3.1 points. The two key deciding factors on Super Bowl Sunday will be whether or not Kansas City’s defense can maintain the loaded Niners offense, and whether or not the Chiefs can stay tight on offense—during the regular season the Chiefs were tied for seventh in turnovers, second for offensive penalties, and led the league in dropped passes. Kansas City’s mission will be made more difficult in the shadow of myriad injuries. Kansas City has achieved a deep playoff run due to Patrick Mahomes’ clutch playoff performances, but this play was not consistent with how he performed during the regular season. Mahomes posted a poor regular season performance—of course relative to his past seasons—ranking 19th in quarterback rating on passing plays. Mahomes is special, though, because of what he does outside of pure passing. In 2023, he had the second best sack avoiding rate only behind Josh Allen, scrambling incredibly well. If the Chiefs struggle to stay tight and smart on offense or cannot maintain San Francisco on defense, things may get out of control quickly for Kansas City. Although, San Francisco is not without its faults. On paper, the team looks fantastic: The team is loaded with stars, leading the league in all pro selections. The Bay Area team, however, finds themselves exposed in the heart of it all: their quarterback. Brock Purdy has been in playoff situations before, but none as daunting as the Super Bowl. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is certain to apply the pressure early on to San Francisco’s mediocre O-line. If Purdy cannot manage his excellent surrounding unit under the heat of the Chiefs, this game will crown Mahomes once again and make for another cruel summer for 49ers fans.