Every year in late March, the top 64 Division I men’s basketball teams compete in a three-week-long, single-elimination, bracket-style tournament, which crowns one team a national champion. The bracket is divided into four regions—East, West, South and Midwest—and a couple days before the first round of the tournament, the NCAA selection committee releases the selected teams for the tournament, along with their seeding. Last Thursday and Friday, the first round of the tournament took place, knocking out half of the squads hopeful to reach Saturday and Sunday, when the second round narrowed the field down to a Sweet 16—the informal title of the third round with 16 remaining teams. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) came into the tournament with high expectations, but the conference only has two of their eight qualifying teams still standing. On the other hand, the Athletic Coast Conference (ACC) and Big East will have a combined seven teams in the Sweet 16—a historically impressive number for the conferences, especially for the ACC whose teams are overall 8-1 with four teams in the Sweet 16.
First round action consisted of breakout stars, shocking upsets and exciting finishes. For the first time in five years, no No. 15 or No. 16 seed took down the respective No. two or No. one seed in their region and 13 teams favored to win were victorious in the first two rounds. Three of the four No. 11 seeds defeated their sixth-seed opponents in the first round, with Oregon beating South Carolina, North Carolina State beating Texas Tech and Duquesne defeating Brigham Young University (BYU). Only NC State was able to keep their run going, taking down Jack Gohlke’s Oakland, who emerged as a fan favorite after he netted 10 3-pointers in a 80-72 win that knocked third seed Kentucky out of the tournament. Though he became a sensation overnight, Gohlke stayed humble, accepting that he might not make it to the NBA but affirming that he can compete in a collegiate game with those who will. He went on to score 22 points in Oakland’s 73-79 loss to NC State in the next round. Joining Oakland in upsetting their high-seeded first round opponent was 13-ranked Yale who took down four-ranked Auburn. Yale followed in the footsteps of its Ivy League counterpart, Princeton, which made it to the third round of the tournament last year after defeating second-seeded University of Arizona in the first round. Despite the array of upsets in the first two rounds, No. one seeds this year have been rolling. In this year’s tournament, the University of Connecticut (UConn), Houston, Purdue and University of North Carolina were ranked number one in their region, and, with one exception that we will look at later, they have been trouncing their opponents, cruising to the Sweet Sixteen and winning by an average score of 19.25 points in the second round. Keep in mind, all four No. one seeds surviving until the Elite Eight is rarer than expected. Since the tournament began seeding teams in 1979, the four top-seeded teams have qualified for the Elite Eight just seven times.
Looking into the Sweet Sixteen, there are some key considerations to pay attention to. UConn comes into the third round as the favorite to win the championship after winning last year. On the other side of the bracket, Duke University has been steamrolling their competition, and is coming off a 38-point win over James Madison University. Jared McCain made eight 3-pointers in Duke’s beating up of James Madison to take Duke back to the Sweet 16. If Duke wins, the team will play the winner of Marquette-NC State. Marquette advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in ten years but will face a difficult test as it takes on 11-ranked, red-hot NC State, coming off their ACC tournament championship run and now two NCAA wins. Top-ranked Houston is coming off a too-close-for-comfort overtime victory over Texas A&M, and of the four top seeds, Houston is seeming like an imposter. Despite a strong first round victory over No. 16 seed Longwood, Houston faces a difficult path to the Final Four. The Houston Cougars will take on an electrifying Duke squad in the Sweet 16, and assuming they win, would take on the winner of NC State and Marquette—two teams that have been overperforming their expectations and have all the pieces necessary to make a deep run.
While the path forward looks clear, nothing is certain in March. Here are my top three hot takes that have potential to shock viewers this year. First, do not be surprised if Clemson University makes a scrappy run. Despite its shaky inconsistency, this Clemson team can heat up from beyond the 3-point line and run up the score against its opponent. Clemson will face quite the test against Arizona this Thursday night. Number two: third-seeded Creighton University could show up strong in the Final Four. Creighton battled Oregon to a double overtime in the second round, eventually finding its mojo in a 13-point victory. Despite needing the two extra periods, this Creighton team showcased its strengths on Saturday night and will certainly be overlooked going into its matchup against Tennessee. Finally, Duke has got the electric March gene needed to make a surprise run. The fourth-seeded Blue Devils came into the tournament an underrated team that could not find their mojo all season. But with the freshman McCain heating up, this Duke squad has all the parts necessary to make it happen late in March.
As the tournament heats up and the field is narrowed down, fans can expect only to be surprised, as this tournament annually yields wild endings and improbable comebacks. Four coveted spots in the Final Four are just two victories away for the 16 remaining teams. I expect that we will see three teams that are a top-three seed, and one team that is ranked No. 5 to No. 11. The Sweet 16 goes down today and Friday, followed by the Elite Eight round on Saturday and Sunday.